How Much Is Olympia Worth?

Olympia is one of the foundational images of modern art, redefining the nude as a contemporary subject and catalyzing debates around realism, modernity, and the gaze. Shown at the 1865 Salon, it became a lightning rod for the shift from academic tradition to modern life—placing it on a plane with Manet’s Déjeuner sur l’herbe. As a textbook image, it underpins teaching, scholarship, and exhibitions globally, ensuring unmatched cultural visibility. This centrality translates directly to demand in any hypothetical market setting: the painting is not just a major Manet, it is among the very few 19th‑century canvases considered “museum‑defining,” a status that supports ultra‑prime valuation multiples over standard artist benchmarks.

The vast majority of Manet’s most important works reside in museums; true masterpieces are effectively unobtainable. Olympia’s ownership by the French State and its inalienability under the French Heritage Code eliminate market supply entirely. While this prevents any real sale, it amplifies hypothetical and insurance valuations: underwriting must price near-total replacement impossibility, cultural centrality, and concentration risk. Scarcity dynamics are amplified by demand from global institutions and collectors for works that can singularly anchor a collection. In short, absolute scarcity and legal protections underpin a valuation framework in the high hundreds of millions, consistent with how comparable national‑treasure‑level works are quantified for risk.

Top‑tier 19th‑century and early‑Modern icons have repeatedly cleared nine figures. Cézanne’s Card Players was widely reported above $250 million in 2011, Klimt’s Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer brought $236.3 million at auction in 2025, and the broader trophy market has sustained depth around $150–450 million for singular, culturally resonant works. Against this backdrop, Olympia’s stature justifies a position at or above the upper cohort. The estimate also recognizes that Manet’s public record ($65.1 million) reflects the scarcity of masterpieces offered, not a ceiling for apex Manet icons. Today’s diversified global buyer base and institutional competition further support liquidity at the proposed range.

Provenance is impeccable: acquired from Manet’s widow via public subscription and presented to the French State, then held continuously in the national collection. Authorship and literature are unassailable, which strengthens underwriting confidence and removes attribution risk. While detailed condition reports are not public, the work’s stature and institutional stewardship indicate a high standard of care; even with routine age‑related conservation, condition would be unlikely to alter its trophy status. For valuation, this clean narrative is material: at the top end of the market, perfect provenance and scholarship de‑risk transactions and support tighter bid‑ask spreads, reinforcing the $400–600 million range.