How Much Is Picture No. III (often labelled Picture No. III / Composition no. 3) Worth?

Valuation conclusion: Using a comparable‑analysis approach anchored to the verified Sotheby’s 1986 sale for Picture No. III (B282) and recent marquee Mondrian auction results, I place the market value for a fully authenticated, museum‑quality oil on canvas of Picture No. III (1938) at $30–60 million. This band reflects where a late‑1930s mature Mondrian with strong provenance and sound condition would sit relative to the modern market for prime ‘Composition’ works [1][2][3][4][5].

The primary historical anchor is the documented 18 November 1986 Sotheby’s sale (reported USD 5,060,000) after which the painting entered Ernst Beyeler’s collection / Fondation Beyeler, where it remains catalogued — a provenance and institutional ownership that materially support today's value expectations [1][2]. Since 2015–2025, public auction benchmarks for Mondrian masterpieces (Christie’s 2015, Sotheby’s 2022, Christie’s 2025) settled in the high‑tens of millions to low‑double‑digit millions, establishing a contemporary ceiling around $47–$51M for top works and supporting the upper range of this estimate [3][4][5].

How the range was set: the lower bound ($30M) assumes a museum‑quality, large or visually commanding lozenge composition but factors in market uncertainty, consignment timing and the possibility that the piece is smaller or less visually dominant than the highest‑priced comparables. The upper bound ($60M) represents a credible top‑end outcome if the work is full scale for Mondrian’s lozenge group, in pristine original condition, with unquestioned catalogue‑raisonné entry and an intense competitive sale (public auction with strong international bidding or a marketed guaranteed sale) — circumstances under which similar works have approached the $50M mark recently [3][4][5].

Key allowances and caveats: without exact dimensions, high‑resolution images, a full provenance/CR citation, and a current conservation report, this estimate is directional. Condition issues, restoration history, or gaps/uncertainties in title/provenance would push realizations meaningfully below the stated band; conversely, an exceptional exhibition/bibliographic history and fresh market presentation could push the result toward or above the high end. For a transactional strategy I recommend immediate authentication/CR confirmation, an up‑to‑date conservation assessment, and preliminary market soundings with Christie’s and Sotheby’s to gauge guaranteed/private sale interest prior to a public auction listing.

Sources and comparables: Fondation Beyeler (collection record for Picture No. III/B282) anchors provenance and museum status; the 1986 Sotheby’s sale is the last verified public trade; Christie’s 2015, Sotheby’s 2022 and Christie’s 2025 landmark results form the contemporary comparative framework that establishes the upper market envelope [1][2][3][4][5].