How Much Is Tête Worth?

Conclusion: A defensible hypothetical fair‑market value for Amedeo Modigliani’s Tête (1915, oil on cardboard, 54 × 42.5 cm), held by the Musée national d’Art moderne, Centre Pompidou, is $12–20 million. This synthesis assumes a lawful, deaccession-approved sale with clear title, exportability, and excellent condition. The work is documented on the Centre Pompidou’s collection page as Tête rouge, signed and acquired in 1964 following the André Lefèvre sale at the Palais Gallièra [1].

Methodology and key comparables: The estimate is anchored in same-artist, same-period comparables, then adjusted for subject, support, and provenance weight. The closest medium/subject comp is Tête de jeune fille (Louise), an oil-on-board head dated 1915 that sold for $5.868 million at Phillips New York in 2023—establishing the floor for high-quality board/cardboard “head” imagery from this moment [2]. By contrast, solid but non-trophy Modigliani oils on canvas (often portraits with named sitters) transact in the mid‑eight figures: e.g., Beatrice Hastings (devant une porte), 1915, realized $17.565 million at Christie’s New York in 2022 [5]. The upper context for the artist remains defined by late nudes, led by Nu couché at $170.4 million (Christie’s, 2015) [3], while recent strength for portraits in Paris (Elvire en buste, ~$31.1 million, Sotheby’s, 2025) underscores robust demand for prime material in the current Franco‑European hub [4].

Positioning of this work: Tête occupies a mid‑tier but art‑historically meaningful niche. The 1915 date is a prime inflection in Modigliani’s mature idiom, connecting directly to his head/caryatid vocabulary that informs both his rare carved Têtes and his most iconic portraits. The subject—a stylized, generalized head—carries strong brand recognizability even without a named sitter. Long-term museum provenance (Centre Pompidou, acquired 1964) typically enhances confidence and scholarship, factors that can support competitive bidding in a deaccession scenario [1].

Constraints and adjustments: The support (oil on cardboard) is materially less prestigious and more conservation‑sensitive than canvas, with elevated risks around planarity, edge fragility, and prior mountings. These risks usually warrant a pricing discount versus comparable canvas works, and any stability or retouch issues would move value toward the low end of the range. Additionally, because the work is part of a French national collection, deaccession is tightly regulated; we treat any sale as strictly hypothetical and assume full legal clearance for the purposes of valuation [6].

Resulting estimate: Triangulating the 1915 oil‑on‑board head comp (~$5.9m) [2] with the mid‑teens results for comparable‑quality canvas portraits [5] and the broader ceiling for strong portraits in today’s Paris‑centric market [4], we place Tête at $12–20 million. In exceptional, conservator‑vetted condition with deep publication/exhibition history, the work should command the upper half of the band; if condition or mounting history prove challenging, the lower‑teens outcome is more probable. The midpoint (~$16m–$17m) is the most likely clearing level in a well‑orchestrated sale.