How Much Is Selbstbildnis mit Modell (Self‑Portrait with Model / Self‑Portrait with Model, fragment) Worth?

Valuation anchor and scope. This valuation is anchored to the recorded Christie’s New York sale of the exact work, offered as Lot 37 and consigned by the Neue Galerie New York, with a Price Realized of $11,323,750 on 8 May 2013. Christie’s lot page lists the published provenance and exhibition citations that establish the painting as an autograph 1913 oil by Egon Schiele [1], and the house press release records the sale result [2]. I treat that 2013 invoice as the primary market anchor and then apply a comparables‑based analysis and market adjustment to generate a present‑day estimate.

Comparables and market context. Comparable museum‑quality Schiele oils from the 1912–1915 period have realized significantly higher sums at major evening sales (for example, Sotheby’s Dämmernde Stadt in 2018 and other landmark results), demonstrating top‑end demand for canonical canvases of this decade [3]. At the same time, the market since 2018–2026 shows selective strength at the top but a measurable recalibration: single‑owner and guaranteed evening sales still reach the mid‑ to high‑seven figures and above, while works with condition issues, uncertain title or fragmentary format trade at a discount. I therefore position the present value range to reflect the 2013 anchor adjusted for market movement, liquidity and the wide impact condition/provenance can have.

Low‑case scenario. If the painting were to present with unresolved conservation problems (extensive edge loss from trimming, heavy inpainting, structurally compromised lining) or evidence of incomplete provenance or potential restitution claims, buyer confidence would be reduced and the work would likely trade toward the lower part of the stated range or below it. In such a case the market would treat the lot as a secondary, fragmentary Schiele and bid accordingly, with prominent bidders abstaining or offering conservatively.

High‑case scenario. Conversely, if an up‑to‑date technical and conservation report confirms structural stability with only minor inpainting, the provenance checks are clean, and the work is marketed in a major evening sale with specialist promotion and institutional interest, the painting could outperform its 2013 invoice in real terms. Established literature and exhibition entries, together with museum‑quality provenance (as cited in Christie’s lot notes), materially improve sale prospects and place the work within the seven‑figure to low‑eight‑figure bracket articulated below.

Conclusion and next actions. The recommended working range—$9.0–18.0 million—reflects the 2013 sale anchor, recent top‑end comparables and a market that rewards provenance and condition while discounting fragmentary or legally uncertain works. To convert this preliminary valuation into a firm pre‑sale estimate, commission a full condition and technical report, complete provenance and title clearance (restitution checks to c. 1948), and seek parallel pre‑sale opinions from the Impressionist & Modern specialists at Christie’s and Sotheby’s. With those materials I can produce a tightened estimate and a recommended sale strategy.