How Much Is The 1821 Derby at Epsom (Horse Race) Worth?

The painting Course de chevaux, dit traditionnellement Le derby de 1821 à Epsom (inv. MI 708) is in the permanent collection of the Musée du Louvre, acquired by the French state in 1866 and therefore has no modern public‑auction record [1]. Because the picture has remained institutional property for 150+ years, there is no contemporary hammer price to use; this valuation is a hypothetical market estimate derived from auction comparables, museum context and specialist‑market behaviour.

As a ca. 0.92 × 1.23 m oil on canvas depicting an equestrian subject from Géricault’s English period, the work has intrinsic attributes of a display‑scale autograph painting: size, subject matter, and early museum acquisition that together support a valuation materially higher than drawings or small studies. Nevertheless, the precise market placement depends on three determinative inputs: (1) confirmed autograph attribution and cataloguing, (2) a full conservation and condition report, and (3) documented exhibition and publication history. Commissioning technical analysis (X‑ray, infrared reflectography, pigment and ground analysis) and securing a written specialist opinion are prerequisites to narrowing the range below.

For a market benchmark, the clearest modern auction ceiling is the Christie’s Paris sale of Portrait d'Alfred et Elisabeth Dedreux (2009), reported at €9,025,000 (≈ $11.7M at the time), which is widely cited as Géricault’s auction high and establishes a realistic upper bound for prime museum‑quality oils [2]. By contrast, recent trade in 2023–2024—most notably Sotheby’s dispersion of the Elmore family Géricault sheets—demonstrates that the active market for this artist is concentrated in works on paper and small oils, which tend to trade in the mid‑to‑upper six‑figure band rather than at multi‑million levels [3].

Balancing the Louvre ownership, the painting’s scale, and the scarce supply of authenticated Géricault oils, the defensible hypothetical open‑market range if MI 708 were to be sold is USD 6,000,000–15,000,000. The lower bound reflects a market where the picture is secure in attribution but has limited exhibition history or requires conservation; the upper bound represents the price that a major institution or a well‑funded private buyer might pay for a fully authenticated, exhibition‑grade Géricault with strong provenance and technical validation.

Key value drivers that could move the price: documented loan history to major retrospectives and early catalogue citations will push value upward; discovery of studio participation, heavy restoration, or weak provenance will depress value. Operationally, because the Louvre is the current owner, sale is improbable; nevertheless, the range above is appropriate for insurance, loan negotiation or a hypothetical market test.

Recommendation: before any financial commitment, obtain high‑resolution photography, a curator’s provenance extract from Louvre archives, and technical reports; then brief a senior specialist at Christie’s, Sotheby’s or Artcurial to produce a formal pre‑sale estimate and/or an insurer’s replacement‑cost valuation.